What Does the 2021 Job Market Have in Store for Graduates?
Reasons why there is still so much uncertainty
In order to assess our future, we have to look at the present and make calculated predictions. As an undergraduate student in my final year, I’ve very much begun to feel the pressure of the contracting job market. We’ve been thrust into a very peculiar dilemma — one centered around an international pandemic.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the population lost around 22 million jobs between March and April of 2020; roughly 5-7% of US citizens went out of work within a matter of weeks. Had it not been for the leeway that has been made in controlling the spread of the virus in certain sectors, especially metropolitan areas, the damage would have been far worse. However, the unemployment rate is projected to peak at around 10% by the end of 2020. The economy is still operating at production levels far below that of pre-pandemic. What especially gives potential ’21 graduates like myself anxiety is the fact that, if the the most recent rate of job creation were to be sustained, the economy would be back to its pre-pandemic level in 17 months. Yes, one year and 5 months — February, 2022.
The question is, how congested will the job market actually be when our time comes? Well, take into consideration the fact that there were about 6 million graduates at the end of the 2020 academic year who are in a similar position to the one we are dreading. While many of those individuals will likely pursue more advanced studies, the majority will be looking for employment in any suitable capacity. According to Till von Watcher, an economist at UCLA, it is larger, higher-paying firms that have reduced hiring, even more than lower-paying firms. As a result, a number of graduates will be taking positions that both pay less and are not pertinent to their studies. Based on an interview done with the Wall Street Journal, a job market expert stated that graduates in career fields such as creative industries, public relations and education will likely be affected more than their colleagues pursuing careers in finance, accounting, consulting etc.
The effects of the pandemic are deeper rooted than it may even appear at first thought. Many job market analysts expect that even once the situation gets back to some form of “normalcy”, it may still be very different from what we’ve seen in the past. Some jobs will come back far later than others, some may not come back at all. Take, for instance, the jobs that came back with the resumption of sports. Athletes, coaches, referees, sports reporters/journalists, sports media corporations, physiotherapists and so on were allowed to get back to work and recuperate some of the revenue that was lost. However, the stadiums are still empty as large gatherings are prohibited. This means that vendors, ticket sellers, some janitors etc are still out of work for the foreseeable future. A number of resorts and theme parks have reopened but at a limited capacity. With several restrictions still put in place, jobs will continue to remain limited.
If you ask me, slow progress is still progress all the same. Amongst the unpredictability of the pandemic lies a bright side. If a vaccine for the coronavirus could be developed in short order, we could see a complete turnaround of the economy much sooner than anticipated. However, now may be the time for the graduating youth to begin looking for jobs with a much broader scope. Some areas of America and other parts of the world are handling the pandemic much better than others. States such as Vermont, Washington, New York (surprisingly but still with high numbers as a result of population density), D.C. and Indiana are amongst those with the best response to the pandemic, and as such, continue to improve their given economies more steadily than states such as Florida. Outside of the US, popular destinations in the Middle East, North Africa, Europe and Asia are experiencing very rapid progression in decreased cases (Denmark, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, China, Egypt, Qatar, Singapore, Thailand..). Though it may not ideally be the time to be making big moves to other continents, could the wisest decision for young professionals be to move out of the country to more flourishing economies? It is definitely an option that some may need to explore.
One thing is for sure, optimism and patience will be critical for graduates over the next fiscal year.
